15/10/2025
It looks like some stormy weather is approaching on Friday. Please make sure your pets are secure, preferably inside the house, or if outside, ensure gates are securely closed and fastened. If your dog needs medication for storms, please check you have some ready and someone to administer the meds, preferably about 1.5 to 2 hours before the storm hits. Storm season has arrived!
Friday night in Sydney & NSW the severe thunderstorms are on!
It looks like Friday will be a big day for thunderstorms with the chance of some widespread severe thunderstorms bringing large hailstones and damaging winds to the Hunter and Mid North Coast regions of NSW, which is shaping up to be the first real big outbreak of the 2025/26 summer.
I expect storms to fire up after about 2pm in central NSW around Dubbo and Orange, moving into the Sydney region and the western suburbs shortly after as small, isolated but reasonably strong and potentially severe thunderstorms. The risk of severe storms in the Sydney area is not too high but it certainly is a chance now, with a few severe cells possible around Penrith and to the south of Penrith too.
Around 3-4PM we will see some strong storms begin developing in the Hunter region, shortly thereafter carrying over into the Mid North Coast around Taree and Gloucester. I expect this region to cop the strongest storm activity on Friday, with some widespread powerful storms carrying large hailstones and damaging winds, and perhaps some heavy rainfall. This is a classic October set up and will present the risk of some serious storms in the Hunter river valley.
I think Newcastle will be the hardest hit large population centre, with severe thunderstorms now likely around Newcastle and to the north and west.
Then later in the afternoon to about 4-6PM strong storms will begin developing along the Mid North Coast up to Coffs Harbour, again I expect some serious severe thunderstorm potential here. The atmosphere along the coast between Taree to Coffs Harbour is very favorable for large or even giant hailstones to occur, and I expect there to be at least one or two very dangerous thunderstorms in this region of NSW on Friday night so watch out.
Then, much later on in the evening and into early Saturday morning, the remnants of the powerful storm activity further south will upscale into a messy, rainy line of storms and showers moving towards the NSW/QLD border. There will be plenty of lightning and likely some strong winds in these squally storms too, and they are likely to cross the border around midnight and move into South Queensland in the early hours of Saturday.
I don't really favor Brisbane or the Gold Coast's chances of seeing these storms, which is unfortunate because they will mostly be rain bearing cells with lots of much needed precipitation. Warwick and surrounds will likely cop it though.
Now as with all thunderstorm forecasts it goes without saying that this is just an outlook, and storms on the day especially earlier on in the afternoon will be hit and miss. If you cop storms though on Friday, they definitely will be the classic strong or severe October thunderstorms we see all the time this time of year. So watch out, pay close attention to the radar on Friday arvo and avoid non essential travel.
Hailstones are likely in that smaller black outline encompassing central NSW and the MNC/Hunter region, so I recommend putting cars undercover from about 3PM onwards. Ensure you are aware of these storms as dangerous severe thunderstorms (which are possible on Friday) can cause some serious problems.
The SSW event is definitely making this forecast a tricky one, and I would like to add that a reduction in storm severity and extensiveness is possible going into Friday however don't bank on it. This forecast is likely a worst case scenario however, or close to it. Forecast models are not taking into account the SSW event and as such it leaves a lot of variables at play here.
I will have more information tomorrow and of course on Friday. Thanks for taking a read all and enjoy the storms. Cheers - Josh
