27/10/2024
Official updates
From PAGASA · Last updated 9 hours ago
THE TROPICAL STORM “LEON” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
Location of eye/center : The center of Tropical Storm LEON was estimated based on all available data at at 1,195 km East of Central Luzon (16.4, 133.3).
Strength : Maximum winds of 65 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 80 kph.
Forecast movement : Forecast to move Westward at 20 kph
Forecast position :
Oct 27, 2024 02:00 PM - 1,065 km East of Central Luzon
Oct 28, 2024 02:00 AM - 940 km East of Northern Luzon
Oct 28, 2024 02:00 PM - 790 km East of Echague, Isabela
Oct 29, 2024 02:00 AM - 665 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Oct 29, 2024 02:00 PM - 565 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Oct 30, 2024 02:00 AM - 510 km East of Calayan, Cagayan
Oct 31, 2024 02:00 AM - 375 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Nov 01, 2024 02:00 AM - 490 km North Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
LEON is unlikely to directly affect the weather conditions in the country within the forecast period. However, depending on how close it will be during its recurvature over the Philippine Sea, the outer rainbands of LEON may affect Extreme Northern Luzon. Furthermore, it may also continue to influence the Southwesterly Windflow initially triggered by Severe Tropical Storm TRAMI (formerly “KRISTINE”), which may affect the western section of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao in the coming days.
Severe Winds
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 may be hoisted over portions of Cagayan Valley and the northeastern portion of Bicol Region by tonight. The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of LEON is Wind Signal No. 2, depending on how much the forecast track will shift westward.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of Tropical Storm LEON will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
Today (27 October): Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Dinagat Islands.
Tomorrow (28 October): Northern Samar, Romblon, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, the northern portion of Antique including Caluya Islands, Capiz, the southern portion of Negros Oriental, Sqiuijor, the southern portion of Bohol, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan Del Norte. Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Sarangani, the southern portion of Davao del Sur, and the southern portion of Davao Oriental.
Tuesday (29 October): Batangas, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro, the northern portion of Camarines Norte, the northern portion of Camarines Sur, the northern portion of Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Romblon, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, the northern portion of Antique including Caluya Islands, Capiz, the southern portion of Negros Oriental, Sqiuijor, the southern portion of Bohol, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 3.0 m: The western seaboard of Luzon
Up to 2.5 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northeastern seaboard of Northern Samar; and the northeastern seaboard of Eastern Samar.
Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Luzon; the seaboards of Visayas; and the eastern and southern seaboards of Mindanao.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
LEON is forecast to move westward until tomorrow (28 October) early morning before turning west northwestward from tomorrow morning to Tuesday (29 October) early morning. Afterwards, it is forecast to turn northwestward to north northwestward for the rest of the forecast period and may make landfall over Ryukyu Islands in Okinawa, Japan on Friday (1 November) early morning. This tropical cyclone is forecast to remain far from the Philippine landmass. However, the track forecast may still shift further westward but within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially on the day-4 and day-5 of the forecast track.
This tropical cyclone is expected to gradually intensify in the next 24 hours and may reach severe tropical storm category by tomorrow early morning. Furthermore, a period of rapid intensification is likely to happen starting tomorrow until Wednesday (30 October) and LEON may reach typhoon category on Monday evening or Tuesday early morning.
