Astar Thoroughbreds

09/04/2024

$170,000 purse for State Bred “Maidens” at Kentucky Downs this week. Amazing what progressive state breeders can do when they think ahead!

08/19/2024

Thanks to many for the feedback related to the new website, Old Man Truth. Nephew Mateaus even caught a content error for me.

Since I have a few broken down old horse player buddies, one asked if I could include some analysis articles on horse racing. Frankly, I have more than you can imagine in my files so I dug one out and reconfigured it this morning for the blog website. Here is the direct link to that article. If the nerdy statistical detail doesn't bore you to death, you may find it interesting. Enjoy.

Throughout the years, I have been involved in numerous seminars on the complex and ever-changing topics of probability, prediction, and variation. Each time, I discovered that it was far more cruci…

07/08/2024

The report also revealed startling statistics about trainers and breeders with significantly higher-than-average fatality rates

07/08/2024

Briannah McDaniel, who admitted her role in the scheme and provided "substantial assistance" in the investigation, suspended 45 days

05/17/2024

Had the Oaks and 5 straight on the first Saturday in May, but alas 2nd in the big race, though still a nice win ATB. All I'm saying for the 2nd Leg is Dan and Freedom exotics.

If you think this is code and don't understand it, don't bet.

Good Luck.

05/05/2024

I Was asked this Derby week how to handicap by an old high school friend. (Yep, a few us are still alive.) While it would take weeks to properly teach handicapping, I’ll make some simple comments.

First, I won the Oaks, which was followed by a 2nd place nose loss by Sierra Leone in the Derby. That’s Okay. Why?

You see, Sierra Leone was the best horse in the race but didn’t win because the race paths were vastly different. While the long shot winner saved ground near the rails on both turns, Sierra ran wider in both turns, even going 5 wide coming home.

In other words, his race was near 6 lengths longer (physical impact related to the circumference of the turns half circles) for Sierra than Dan, plus a stretch battle and bumping (which is part of racing by the way) slowed him and the Japanese horse considerably.

Variation is always a funny thing and very difficult to predict. If you ever doubled down on 11 in blackjack, and on the subsequently dealt card got an Ace through 5, you might understand how you can do the right thing and lose. It’s no different in horse racing.

I once instructed executives and students related to variation, and how data science allows you to deploy statistical methods to determine true trends and probabilities. A case study could be made related to the Derby, and those that bet on the big favorite Fierceness.

The running variation related to Fierceness was extreme. His last race speed rating was great and he won by 13 1/2 lengths, but the Equibase SR was 20 points higher than the prior race, and last year as a 2 year old he had a massive 37 point swing from race to race! His variable performance indicated no predictive trend based on my analysis but the bettors, and the world at large, “always” use recent data points to predict the future, or a trend.

Just “critically” listen to the last data point false trends reported in the news any night of the week if you don’t believe me.

Speed ratings are just one algorithm element that can be used to handicap horse racing. However, do you know which two horses, in the 20 horse Derby field, had the best such average rating for “all” their races in 2024? Yep. Mystic Dan (18 to 1 really?) first, Sierra Leone second, and for all I know Forever Young could have been there also but such comparative ratings are not available in Japan.

Such is life, as an old man ponders an other example related to the importance of understanding variation.

05/03/2024

You know, at age 71 and studying it for over 60 years, I’ve forgotten more about gambling and horse racing than most people will ever know.

So, it’s Hilarious seeing people bet horses who come off Lasix. Pipeline in the Alysheba …. 2nd favorite finishing dead last.

Yep, you need to handicap the drugs, the cheaters and the horses.

05/02/2024

"Sierra Leone", and that's all I'm going to say. Good Luck.

01/12/2024

Good article on why Kentucky and other states thrive, while others just die. With historical racing and sports betting now, Kentucky has it all together.

Amazing that almost 3/4 of a million dollars was bet on HHR and only 45 million was bet on live racing. The Derby is now a $5,000,000 race, surrounded by $1,000,000 races.

Funny that HHR was dismissed by states like Minnesota about 15 years ago and they just seemed to realize last year that Sports betting could be important to racing.

Ancient thinkers are always late to the game and have no idea what progressive thinkers define as reality.

Fueled by revenue from Historical Horse Racing machines, Thoroughbred racing in Kentucky has never been on more solid footing

09/20/2023

Canterbury Park canceled the final 10 races on its 13-race closing-night card Saturday after its riding colony felt both the main track and turf course were unsafe after the surfaces were hit with consecutive days of rain.

09/07/2023

The end of the Saratoga meet is usually met with a tinge of sadness. This year, it’s met more with a sigh of relief.

09/07/2023

Another smart racing jurisdiction as KY horse people and the KY racing commission help drive change by addressing adding the Sportsbooks, and $23,000,000 to KY. Non-sportsbook states continue to let their residents use online sportsbooks or drive to near sportsbooks in other states.

Good God horse people in some states are so antiquated, stupid and lazy that they deserve what they get.

Turfway Park hopes to use sports betting to attract new customers and provide more entertainment options to existing bettors.

09/01/2023

WHAT A GREAT SALE!!! Results: https://iowathoroughbred.com/itboa-fall-sale/ Grossed over $865,000, almost $50,000 more than last year. I can't express how much I appreciate everyone that helps me make this auction run so smoothly. You guys rock!! Not everyone made the picture, Carmen, Kristy & Kevin were busy in the office checking people out and packing.

08/25/2023

And this is why Tier One racetracks and states will be around for many years (“full”casino gaming and sports books), as the unprofitable racing product is subsidized by highly profitable alternative gaming products. Certain states like Indiana got ahead of the game long ago.

It’s also why lazy and non-critical thinking horse people have themselves caused massive declines and the elimination of racing in their respective jurisdictions. They will blame others, or moronically blame cycles or trends, because they lack the long term thinking ability to know better, but they only have themselves to blame.

Such is life in racing.

Churchill Downs is sharing new details as it prepares to roll out a sports betting book at the racetrack.

07/04/2023

“Mr. Baffert continues to peddle a false narrative concerning the failed drug test of Medina Spirit at the 147th Kentucky Derby

05/20/2023

Swanson Lake was euthanized at Churchill Downs Saturday. The Michael McCarthy trainee is the ninth to die at the famed track in less than a month.

05/20/2023

Havnameltdown, trained by Bob Baffert, broke down on the second turn during Saturday’s Chick Lang Stakes at Pimlico Race Course and was euthanized on the track, according to track officials.

Full story: https://bit.ly/3q0bFVr

05/15/2023

Why you ask? Because racing is corrupt, lying is commonplace and no one in racing seems to has either the power or knowledge to make it operate efficiently. Dysfunctional operating norms, that would never be allowed in well run businesses, exist in multiple racing commissions across the country.

Readers have a lot of questions about the status of Forte, who was a vet scratch from the Kentucky Derby and who has been disqualified from the Hopeful Stakes. We have answers.