Astar Thoroughbreds

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La Grange, KY
Astar Thoroughbreds

Now retired after over 100 wins, Astar Thoroughbreds bred and raced from 2004 until 2021. These horses are just beginning their racing careers.
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Even though Astar Thoroughbreds is heavily involved in racing, their study of
pedigree and breeding theories compelled them to initiate a breeding program a few years ago. They built a broodmare band, acquired a stallion in Stormy Business and began selling yearlings.

09/04/2024

$170,000 purse for State Bred “Maidens” at Kentucky Downs this week. Amazing what progressive state breeders can do when they think ahead!

08/19/2024

Thanks to many for the feedback related to the new website, Old Man Truth. Nephew Mateaus even caught a content error for me.

Since I have a few broken down old horse player buddies, one asked if I could include some analysis articles on horse racing. Frankly, I have more than you can imagine in my files so I dug one out and reconfigured it this morning for the blog website. Here is the direct link to that article. If the nerdy statistical detail doesn't bore you to death, you may find it interesting. Enjoy.

Throughout the years, I have been involved in numerous seminars on the complex and ever-changing topics of probability, prediction, and variation. Each time, I discovered that it was far more cruci…

07/08/2024

The report also revealed startling statistics about trainers and breeders with significantly higher-than-average fatality rates

07/08/2024

Briannah McDaniel, who admitted her role in the scheme and provided "substantial assistance" in the investigation, suspended 45 days

05/17/2024

Had the Oaks and 5 straight on the first Saturday in May, but alas 2nd in the big race, though still a nice win ATB. All I'm saying for the 2nd Leg is Dan and Freedom exotics.

If you think this is code and don't understand it, don't bet.

Good Luck.

05/05/2024

I Was asked this Derby week how to handicap by an old high school friend. (Yep, a few us are still alive.) While it would take weeks to properly teach handicapping, I’ll make some simple comments.

First, I won the Oaks, which was followed by a 2nd place nose loss by Sierra Leone in the Derby. That’s Okay. Why?

You see, Sierra Leone was the best horse in the race but didn’t win because the race paths were vastly different. While the long shot winner saved ground near the rails on both turns, Sierra ran wider in both turns, even going 5 wide coming home.

In other words, his race was near 6 lengths longer (physical impact related to the circumference of the turns half circles) for Sierra than Dan, plus a stretch battle and bumping (which is part of racing by the way) slowed him and the Japanese horse considerably.

Variation is always a funny thing and very difficult to predict. If you ever doubled down on 11 in blackjack, and on the subsequently dealt card got an Ace through 5, you might understand how you can do the right thing and lose. It’s no different in horse racing.

I once instructed executives and students related to variation, and how data science allows you to deploy statistical methods to determine true trends and probabilities. A case study could be made related to the Derby, and those that bet on the big favorite Fierceness.

The running variation related to Fierceness was extreme. His last race speed rating was great and he won by 13 1/2 lengths, but the Equibase SR was 20 points higher than the prior race, and last year as a 2 year old he had a massive 37 point swing from race to race! His variable performance indicated no predictive trend based on my analysis but the bettors, and the world at large, “always” use recent data points to predict the future, or a trend.

Just “critically” listen to the last data point false trends reported in the news any night of the week if you don’t believe me.

Speed ratings are just one algorithm element that can be used to handicap horse racing. However, do you know which two horses, in the 20 horse Derby field, had the best such average rating for “all” their races in 2024? Yep. Mystic Dan (18 to 1 really?) first, Sierra Leone second, and for all I know Forever Young could have been there also but such comparative ratings are not available in Japan.

Such is life, as an old man ponders an other example related to the importance of understanding variation.

05/03/2024

You know, at age 71 and studying it for over 60 years, I’ve forgotten more about gambling and horse racing than most people will ever know.

So, it’s Hilarious seeing people bet horses who come off Lasix. Pipeline in the Alysheba …. 2nd favorite finishing dead last.

Yep, you need to handicap the drugs, the cheaters and the horses.

05/02/2024

"Sierra Leone", and that's all I'm going to say. Good Luck.

01/12/2024

Good article on why Kentucky and other states thrive, while others just die. With historical racing and sports betting now, Kentucky has it all together.

Amazing that almost 3/4 of a million dollars was bet on HHR and only 45 million was bet on live racing. The Derby is now a $5,000,000 race, surrounded by $1,000,000 races.

Funny that HHR was dismissed by states like Minnesota about 15 years ago and they just seemed to realize last year that Sports betting could be important to racing.

Ancient thinkers are always late to the game and have no idea what progressive thinkers define as reality.

Fueled by revenue from Historical Horse Racing machines, Thoroughbred racing in Kentucky has never been on more solid footing

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La Grange, KY
40031

Website

https://www.astarthor.com/blog

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Our Story

Astar Thoroughbreds has been heavily involved in racing and breeding, with over 100 related win pictures now hanging in their stable office. With an executive and predictive analysis background, we utilize pedigree and breeding formulas to reasonably predict racing success. We have bought and and breed several stakes winners over the last decade and a half.

As an owner and breeder, our belief is that success in the Thoroughbred industry should be focused on economic effectiveness, not simply gathering wins at any cost. We openly share insights with those that are legitimately interested in participating in the sport we love, and realizing economic success in the process.

We have also been an outspoken critic of racing. The Thoroughbred industry has been in decline for decades. Until such time as the racing industry is re-engineered, not merely changed, the decline will continue.

To be both contemporary and trustworthy, racing must eliminate race day medication, perform extensive out of competition testing, authorize a central national authority or racing commission, incorporate gaming techniques utilized by contemporary and growing sports wagering institutions, cooperate in race scheduling between racetracks, implement monitoring technology to prevent cheating, and speed up the sport with dual paddock and stabling capability so the action to non-action ratio of the sport approaches competitive sporting/entertainment attractions.