04/22/2024
"Correlation is not causation"
There is a meme going with a picture of President Biden that links increased costs at the grocery store to the years of his presidency.
In fact, the cause, in a nutshell, is a) climate change and b) international demand.
Going down the list by numbers, here's the real story from the agricultural side:
1. Cocoa and 7. Chocolate: climate change. The end of cacao production in major areas has been predicted for years. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/02/28/why-chocolate-is-becoming-much-more-expensive
2. Orange juice: climate change, invasive insects. Freezes and extreme hurricanes in Florida.
3. Olive oil: California groves decimated by drought; war and drought in Europe and Middle East.
4. Sugar: Drought in India and Thailand reducing world supplies.
5. Fruit snacks: Sugar prices + fruit prices
6. Cooking oil: Weather disasters, increased global demand for fried foods, use in manufactured non-food goods instead of fossil-based ingredients. Loss of production in Ukraine due to war.
7. 1. Cocoa + 4. Sugar
8. Applesauce: Cost to grow up 73% from 2020 to 2023, downward trend in acreage, climate change affecting all fruit crops.
9. Beef: Extreme weather and fires; labor shortages due to pandemic; increased feed costs
10. Mayonnaise: 3. + 6. + 12.
11. Loaf of bread: Loss of wheat production in Ukraine due to war. Aftereffects of supply chain issues due to pandemic.
12. Eggs: HPAI (highly pathogenic avian influenza) is continuing to wipe out millions of birds at large production facilities, it’s just “old news” so no one is paying attention.
13. Milk: Declining number of dairies, expensive feed grains, global demand. Many US dairies bought by foreign countries and shipping milk to those countries (Middle east, China, etc.)
14. Cereal: Corporate greed + increased demand and decreased production for grains worldwide.
15. Butter: Byproduct of 13.
If you want prices to go down, stop taking good farm ground out of production for housing, industry, roads, solar installations, etc. Stop using fossil fuels OR biofuels...just reduce your entire energy consumption. And start supporting immigration policies to get immigrant workers back in our fields. Thank those immigrants for doing work you wouldn't!
Sales are down as chocolatiers raise prices. Now the industry is facing a reckoning