24/02/2023
The National Weather Service and Ventura County Sheriff’s Emergency Services are continuing to monitor the winter storm impacting the Ventura County Operational Area region today through Saturday. Over the next 48 hours, this storm is expected to bring significant snowfall expected in our local mountains and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds are anticipated throughout the region. Current rainfall estimates are for 2"- 5" along the coast and valleys and 5"-10" in the foothills and mountains. Southern facing slopes will likely see the highest rainfall totals. The heaviest periods of rainfall are currently anticipated to occur Friday from 12:00am - 12:00am Saturday. Additional forecast information can be obtained from the National Weather Service.
EVACUATION WARNINGS
Evacuation Warnings are scheduled to be in effect for the following locations beginning 3pm Thursday:
Matilija Canyon / North Fork / Camino Cielo: Access to these areas is anticipated to become impassable due to significant precipitation and potential for stream bank erosion and mud or debris flows.
Camp Chaffee/Casitas Vista Road: This area will likely experience access issues due to potential flooding along Coyote Creek
Creek Road and Old Creek Road (Ojai): Stream flow forecasts indicate the potential for flooding, due to high flows in San Antonio Creek downstream of Camp Comfort.
Overtopping and minor flooding of the creek and along the south side of Creek Road is currently forecast.
Damage from previous storms and creek bed displacement and additional stream bank erosion remains an issue for this area.
Evacuation Warnings may be upgraded to Evacuation Orders should the forecast change or observed conditions intensify.
The Evacuation Warnings are anticipated to extend to Saturday morning, but may be lifted occur earlier depending on conditions.
ADDITIONAL NOTIFICATIONS
Ventura and Santa Clara Rivers: The Ventura County Sheriff's Office will be deploying personnel this afternoon to assist with notifications to unsheltered individuals living in the Ventura and Santa Clara River bottoms of the impending weather conditions.
The Ventura County Aviation Unit will conduct a flyover of the rivers beginning around noon on Thursday to assist in notifications.
Stream flow forecasts indicate the potential for flooding in the area of the Ventura RV park, due to higher flows in the lower Ventura River.
The RV park remains closed following the January storms, and City of Ventura has been contacted and may issue warnings as applicable.
OTHER WATCH AREAS
Lockwood Valley (snow/blizzard conditions)
Main Street/Orchard Street, Piru
Hopper Creek/Hwy 126, Piru
Nye Road, Casitas Springs
Grand Avenue, Fillmore: Con
Ojai-Santa Paula Road, Santa Paula
Based on the current forecast, exceedance of historical thresholds associated with landslides at the community of La Conchita is not likely.
As with all areas, however, the potential for debris flows exists if rainfall rates exceed 1" per hour.
The potential for localized flooding exists throughout the county during high-intensity rainfall, especially on south-facing slopes.
No burn scars and/or post-fire areas are currently being monitored for potential issues.
OPERATIONAL AREA PREPAREDNESS
The Ventura County EOC will open on Friday with staff from both Sheriff’s Emergency Services and Watershed Protection monitoring the progress of the storm.
Updated information for the public will be posted on VCEmergency.com and on social media later today.
The Ventura County Sheriff’s Agency will be deploying additional personnel to assist with notifications and calls for service during this event.
The Ventura County Fire Department will be deploying additional personnel and equipment across the county to respond to potential water rescues and flooding calls.
SHELTER OPERATIONS
The City of Ventura will be activating their Foul Weather Shelter Plan effective Thursday – Saturday. The FWS plan provides emergency temporary shelter at local motel rooms for individuals experiencing homelessness during severe weather events, such as severe rain, wind or low temperatures. Priority is given to homeless individuals who are 65 and older or live with chronic health conditions. Motel rooms are distributed on a first come, first served basis.
Individuals who receive a room must arrive at the River Community Church, located at 859 E. Santa Clara Street, between 5:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m.
Those who are unable to secure a room will receive stay warm packs. Stay warm packs will consist of items donated by community members and partner agencies and non-profits. Packs include rain ponchos, tarps, blankets, jackets, hand-warmers, socks, toiletries, snacks, and a carrying bag for all supplies.
READINESS GUIDELINES FOR MUNICIPALITIES
Confirm readiness of City EOCs by communicating with key department heads and staff members about the impending event and taking appropriate preparedness actions.
Confirm readiness of local public works crews and the availability of sandbags.
WEATHER FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS
KEY POINTS
Moderate to heavy rain is currently expected Friday through Friday night
Thunderstorm potential Friday night and Saturday (including small hail, gusty winds, and potential for waterspouts)
Small stream and urban flooding potential
Gusty SE-S winds on Friday, turning SW-W Friday night (30-50 mph for coasts and valleys)
High surf, minor coastal flooding, and beach erosion
Significant snowfall is anticipated in mountain areas
RAIN & SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, RATES, AND TIMING
Total rainfall amounts of 2.0-5.0” in coasts and valleys, and 5.0-10” in foothills/mountains (but transitioning to snow at higher elevations).
Peak rain rates of 0.25-.75” per hour expected for most areas, with localized rates of 1” per hour possible.
Higher hourly rate potential on south-facing foothills/mountains
1-6” of snow anticipated between 1,500 and 2,500 ft. (Santa Ynez Mtns., Santa Monica Mtns., Cuyama)
6-12” of snow anticipated between 2,500 and 4,000 ft.
Heavy snow accumulations anticipated above 4,500 ft., totaling 2-5’.
Snowfall rates of 2-4” per hour.
For the latest forecast updates, visit weather.gov/losange
