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02/03/2025
UGHHHHH! 😭
-Wednesday PM through Thursday PM system update-
OVERVIEW:
We continue to track & monitor an incoming system which will bring a mix of all precip types to Michigan. Details are becoming a little clearer, and we wanted to share our updated thoughts with you.
TIMING:
Late Wednesday PM through Thursday PM- specific time details will come either later tonight or early tomorrow morning.
IMPACTS:
Mainly travel impacts are expected at this time. Power outages & tree damage will likely be more isolated in nature. Our highest concern currently is in southern Michigan for any (if any) power/tree impacts.
FREEZING RAIN/ICE:
Right now, the area of freezing rain has shrunk southward, now centered along and south of I-96. (Pink zone)
Ice accretion appears to be highest/most concerning in southern Michigan, where we are seeing computer models converge on an area of higher ice totals. Overall, this isn’t looking like a “major crippling event” but I will stress that even 0.05” of ice can slick roadways up and make travel difficult.
ICE TOTALS:
As of now, we’re not locking our final forecast in just yet, but I can say we do think most places will end up below 0.20” of ice accretion with isolated higher amounts certainly possible, especially in the yellow zone. Remember, 0.25” is where we become concerned for ice impacts on power & trees.
Higher ice totals are uncertain due to an expected “dry slot” that may fill in overnight Thursday. This dry slot will be vital to our final ice accretion totals, as any gap in precipitation will halt ice accretion.
Will mention that one area we are watching even more closely is the higher terrain areas of the Irish Hills from Hillsdale to western Lenawee, into Washtenaw counties. Higher elevation may lead to easier accumulation of ice.
We can’t get specific just yet, but I hope that gives you some insight into what to expect.
SLEET:
An area of sleet, freezing rain, and snow may exist between I-96 & the Tri-City/Mount Plesant region, this is highlighted in orange now.
SNOW:
Mostly snow is expected for northern lower Michigan and the UP. Accumulations look to be moderate in nature, on the order of a range between 2-8”. Areas further south close to the Orange zone may mix in different precip types throughout this event, but the majority should fall as snow. The upper peninsula should remain all snow. (Blue zone)
We plan to re-evaluate models this evening. If our confidence increases, we may post our first call totals on snow & ice later tonight. Otherwise, expect them tomorrow morning.
