Thank you to all who came out for our Paws for a Cause Happy Hour to Support the Colorado Puppy Rescue! We raised money to help rescue dogs, had some drinks, got to talk, and enjoyed some great food. #fundraiser #puppylove #rescue #networking #shouldhavetakenmorepictures
Happy Friday everyone! Rates ended down slightly this week as PCE came in at 2.9% vs the 3.0% expected, this marked the first time we have seen inflation readings that start with a 2 in several years. On top of that, the initial jobless claims were 214k vs the 200k estimated and personal income was down to .2% vs the .3% expected. So why are rates only down slightly? Consumers are still spending! The overall economy seems to be humming right along, with GDP coming in above expectations (3.3% vs 2.0%), personal spending coming considerably higher than expected (.7% vs .4%), and pending home sales lifting off (8.3% vs 1.5% expected).
I mentioned last week that we may be facing an early spring buying season, and this week just reinforced that. I had several buyers have properties go under contract and several others in competing offer situations. The phone continues to ring with new buyers looking to get pre-approved, more so than last year. I’ve made this point for months and I’m not ready to retire it yet, but I don’t think there are many weeks left where I can write it. There is opportunity out there in this market, but I do believe it’s a narrow window and buyers should be jumping on it. Remind them of that, and keep them focused on the important things- buying the right home for the right reasons and moving quickly when the right opportunity presents itself. I’ll be around this weekend if you or your buyers need me, keep selling!
#marketupdate #whatareratesdoing #buynowrefilater #mortgage #TheschaeferTeam #colorado #lender
Happy Saturday everyone! The snow and arctic chill are behind us, I missed the crazy powder days last weekend but I’ll be chasing it at Copper this weekend with my son. If you are headed out here hit me up!
This week it was the Fed commentary that moved the needle, Fed Chair Waller said that the US is “within striking distance” of the 2% target inflation goal, which by itself sounds great! It was the rest of the commentary that turned the bond market sour and sent rates rising slightly. Here’s his quote: "The key thing is the economy is doing well. It gives us the flexibility to move carefully and methodically. We can see how the data comes in and if progress is being sustained. The worst thing we'd have is it all reverses after we've already started to cut. We really want to see evidence of this progress...in the real data as the inflation data continues. I believe it will."
This all sounds innocuous enough, but it also alludes to the Fed not cutting rates in March as expected and the chance of a rate cut dropped from 80% to 50%. The market is fickle, it’s yearning for some news around a rate cut, and it’s just not getting it. Expect rates to stay slightly higher until that news comes, which it will. It’s just a matter of time.
The phone continues to ring with new buyers looking to get pre-approved, more so than last year. I had lunch with an old buddy/realtor who thinks we will see a fast and furious spring market followed by a leveled-off end of the year due to the election and uncertainty that usually brings. I tend to agree with him, this makes sense to me both from a common sense standpoint and from a current activity standpoint. This leads me to the point I have been trying to make for several months now, there is opportunity out there in this market, but I do believe it’s a narrow window and buyers should be jumping on it. Remind them of that, and keep them focused on the important things- buying the right home for the right reasons and movi
January marks my incredible 10-year anniversary with Elevations Credit Union! It’s hard to believe it’s been a decade already. When I moved over from my previous career in the title industry and got into lending, I used my title company experiences to pick the best mortgage company in the market. I chose Elevations because they embodied everything that I felt a good company represents... An active presence in the community, a clear vision, great leadership with a focus on referral partner relationships, and a wide array of loan products combined with competitive rates & fees. 10 years later, I still believe this to be true. I am thankful for my team, the realtors I am fortunate enough to work with, and the buyers who we help create a path to a better financial future through homeownership and investment in real estate.
Here’s to the next decade. Cheers!
#Anniversary #Greatful #MortgageJourney #Cheersto10Years #TheSchaeferTeam
It’s the last official business day of 2023, and what a year it has been. From interest rate highs that we haven’t seen since the late 1990s to transaction volume lows we haven’t experienced since 2008, it’s notable that mortgage rates have started to decline, setting up a nice trend as we close out the year. I’m happy to say goodbye to 2023 and look forward to the new year. Surprisingly, the 10-year treasury will end the year at 3.88%, almost exactly where the year started. It’s a different story for Russell Wilson; he will find himself in a different position on the Bronco’s roster than where he started, i.e., on the bench.
If you have been reading this newsletter, you should know my mantra for the year. Whatever rate a buyer gets now, they will almost certainly have refinanced in the next 2 years. Even as we close out the year with rates back in the 6%’s, I still believe this is true. At some point, likely in 2024, we’ll see rates back below 6% and the competition for buyers will tighten. I said it last week and I’ll say it again, there is opportunity out there in this market, but I do believe it’s a narrow window and buyers should be jumping on it. This in itself is not a bad thing as it will mean increased volume, but it means it will be harder to get a bargain. Remind them of that, and keep them focused on the important things- buying the right home for the right reasons and moving quickly when the right opportunity presents itself. My team and I will always make time if you or your buyers need us… as always, keep selling!
#marketupdate #whatareratesdoing #buynowrefilater #mortgage #TheschaeferTeam #colorado #lender
Mortgage professional giving an update on what rates and the market today.
A heartfelt CONGRATULATIONS to our incredible clients on their closings and obtaining the keys to their new homes! Your trust and confidence in us mean the world, and we're honored to have played a part in making your dreams a reality. May your new homes be filled with love, laughter, and countless beautiful memories!
And a big shoutout and THANK YOU to our exceptional realtor partners! Your expertise, dedication, and passion for helping clients find their perfect homes have made this journey truly special. We value your partnership and look forward to many more successful collaborations ahead.
📸 To commemorate this milestone, check out the video featuring snapshots of these incredible homes. #HomeSweetHome #CelebratingSuccess #ThankYouRealtors # #DreamHomes #TheSchaeferTeam #Colorado
The week started with rates continuing the slow, downward trend, but today’s jobs report will put a pause on the decline, even if it’s just temporary. Non farm payrolls came in at 199k vs 180k and there were no revisions to October. The 199k isn’t a huge surprise considering the auto workers and Hollywood strikes are over, but this was the first time in a while there weren’t downward revisions to the previous month's report.
Unemployment fell to 3.7% from the 3.9% expected, also not completely surprising but certainly not pointing towards a significantly slowing economy. The next Fed meeting is next week and there’s still no expectation of a rate increase or decrease, but it will be interesting to hear the commentary. The Fed has continued to not rule out rate hikes for next year, but the market isn’t buying that stance. I still think there’s a decent chance we’ll see them lower towards April or May of 2024. If not then, then not much longer after.
Even as we continue to turn the corner and head towards a trend of lowering rates, I’ll continue to lean back into my mantra for the year. Whatever rate a buyer gets now, they still will almost certainly have refinanced in the next 2 years. There is opportunity out there in this market, but I do believe it’s a narrow window and buyers should be jumping on it. in October, 2-1 Buydowns made up 60% of all transactions with loans across the Front Range so sellers are willing to play ball to get buyers off the fence. As rates drop, that leverage will fade as more buyers jump back into the market. Remind them of that, and keep them focused on the important things- buying the right home for the right reasons and moving quickly when the right opportunity presents itself. My team and I will always make time if you or your buyers need us… as always, keep selling!
#marketupdate #whatareratesdoing #buynowrefilater #mortgage #TheSchaeferTeam #colorado #lender
Happy December everyone! It’s hard to believe that the year is drawing to a close, I’m suffering from my seasonal case of “where did the year go” syndrome. The only cure is to get out there and hang my holiday lights, so wish me luck.
In case you haven’t heard yet, the FHFA announced the new conforming loan limits for 2024. Not surprisingly, it was a much smaller increase compared to previous years, but they are now up to $766,550 across the country. While this is great news for those seeking higher purchase price points with 30-year fixed loan options, the impact is diminished today by the high rates. I think the impact of the increased loan amounts will take hold in the market in the 2nd half of 2024, or whenever we start to really see a meaningful drop in rates. I do believe we have turned the corner, but the process will take some time.
This week both the month-over-month and year-over-year PCE numbers came in as expected and down from previous readings, both good news. Month-over-month PCE came at .2% vs .3% last month, and we were at 3.5% year over year vs 3.7% from the last year-over-year reading. October readings for both personal income and spending were down, another sign that the economy is continuing to cool.
The next Fed meeting is December 13th, but all signs continue to point to the Fed being done with their rate hikes. In fact, in the last 4 rate hiking cycles spanning the last 30 years, the Fed cut rates an average of 8.65 months from its last and final rate hike. With the last increase coming in July, the trend would have us looking at our first rate cut in April or May of 2024. I’m not going to call it now, but boy wouldn’t that be nice if it did happen??
Even as we continue to turn the corner and head towards a trend of lowering rates, I’ll continue to lean back into my mantra for the year. Whatever rate a buyer gets now, they still will almost certainly have refinanced in the next 2 years. There is opportunity out there in thi
I hope you had a great Thanksgiving and enjoyed time with your loved ones! I am thankful for my referral partners and the trust placed in me to always do the right thing, get the deal closed, and create a memorable experience that keeps repeat buyers coming back and building a business that is sustainable and thrives in any market. So with that said, I am thankful for you!
Rates held steady this week, making me again think we have hit the peak and the worst is behind us. I still believe we’ll be in a higher for longer pattern, but longer is a relative term. What I mean is that we likely aren’t going to see rates shoot down quickly, but over the next 12 – 24 months we will likely see them ease back down. Time will tell, and next week’s PCE numbers should give us a clue.
Given the several-week stabilization in rates, I’ll continue to lean back into my mantra for the year. Whatever rate a buyer gets now, they will almost certainly have refinanced in the next 2 years. There is opportunity out there in this market, and buyers should be jumping on it. Remind them of that, and keep them focused on the important things- buying the right home for the right reasons and moving quickly when the right opportunity presents itself. As rates drop, buyer competition increases, so there’s a window of opportunity now that likely won’t be around in a few years. My team and I will always make time if you or your buyers need us… as always, keep selling!
Happy Friday everyone! This week the CPI numbers proved to be the big market mover, and we may have officially reversed the trend of steadily increasing rates. CPI came in at 3.2% vs the 3.3% expected, and down from 3.7% prior. Month to month it was flat, coming in at 0% vs the .1% expected and .4% prior.
Jobless claims were up as well coming in at 231k vs the 220k expected, another sign that the economy is slowing. Oil prices are falling as well, not due to lack of production but due to lack of demand. Increased inflation, higher unemployment, and decreased economic activity are having a “normal” impact on rates. The Fed won’t officially come out and say so just yet, but the rate hiking cycle is over.
As we approach the holiday season, we typically see a cyclical slowdown. But this particular cycle is filled with opportunity, so any buyers who have been on the fence may just find price reductions and seller concessions if they get out in the market and make an offer.
#marketupdate #whatareratesdoing #buynowrefilater #mortgage #TheSchaeferTeam #colorado #lender
Happy Friday everyone! I’m going to keep it short and sweet this week, mainly because there wasn’t a lot of movement in rates, but also because I’m superstitious. That’s the old baseball player in me thinking that you don’t ever talk about a no-hitter when your pitcher is throwing a no-hitter.
Not that we’re anywhere near the rarefied no-hitter air, but we are a week into a solid hitting streak. Bonds had a strong rally last week after the dog of a jobs report and we saw rates improve, and equally importantly they held this week. I strongly believe the Fed is done raising rates, but I also believe we are likely entering the “higher for longer” phase. What “longer” means is tough to say and time will tell, but I don’t expect any significant drops in the next few months.
Speaking of sports, thanks to everyone who came out yesterday to the first (annual? maybe more often??) Pickleball event. It was a great time and a ton of fun. We’ll do it again for sure and look forward to seeing you out there.
#marketupdate #whatareratesdoing #buynowrefilater #mortgage #TheSchaeferTeam #colorado #lender
