11/28/2025
๐ง๐๐ฒ๐๐ฑ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ผ๐๐๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ:
Since every random social media weather page is going hype-crazy posting maps for next week, and your resident expert Uncle Frank was boring you to death at Thanksgiving dinner yesterday about next Tuesday's snow potential and politics, we thought we'd take the sensible approach and create a "probability" map for you instead.
Now some of you skipped or slept through probability and statistics class in high school, so you won't get the idea behind this map, which is a "most likely outcome" at present time. Just to give you an idea of what may be coming. We have no time for shenanigans, so we turned off comments to this post. Notice there are no amounts - that is done purposefully. That comes Sunday with the first official call. Can this change in the next 48-72 hours? Of course. It's weather.
The bottom line is there is likely to be a storm next Tuesday. Whether that is arriving late Monday night, Tuesday morning, Tuesday afternoon, etc. is still to be worked out...so we'll just say "Tuesday" at this point and let it at that. The map STRONGLY favors climatology in this case. Not many folks realize, but on December 2nd, the average high in Philadelphia is 50 degrees. Although our long range outlook released today suggested it will be below average [temperatures] between December 1st and 12th, Below average isn't even enough to save the I-95 corridor areas and points SE toward the coast. Even inland may have mixing or changeover issues as noted. This may be the first of several snow chances in December, which we continue to project above average for the month as a whole, a projection which has maintained since we introduced it on Halloween.
If you were waiting to sign up for text alerts until the snow threats appeared... namely the "I'll believe it when I see it" crowd, now is the time to get signed up for that and the premium forum at https://epawaweather.com/winter-weather-alerts. Do so before Sunday before the first alerts will be necessary for this event. A full write up and model analysis has already begun in our premium forum regarding this event.