10/08/2024
Important Milton Update: (We've got some stuff to cover here folks, strap in!)
1. Ok, here is the latest. As you can see, we are starting to get some agreement on the models. (Finally). They show landfall from the Skyway to the Southern end of Manatee County. The NHC track pretty much mirrors this. That being said, most Floridians know "wobbles" are 100% unpredictable. No model (or human) can actually predict where they occur. However, most Floridians know those wobbles often are East of the center and have a tendency to go the the right. We've seen it SO many times before. (Charley, Irma, Ian, Idalia, and even Helene 2 weeks ago)
2. Hurricane winds will likely extend about 50 miles from the eye when it approaches our area. Right now, hurricane winds extend 30 miles from the center. Milton will get bigger over the next 36 hours. It's currently experiencing an ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) which temporarily weakens the storm. That's why the winds are down. Once complete, it's certainly possible Milton can strengthen again. Although, I DO NOT expect it to regain its strength from yesterday. That's just my opinion. Could it? Sure. But I don't think it happens for a number of reasons. Either way, Milton WILL be a powerful hurricane when it impacts our area. For the record, the NHC now has it as a Cat THREE hurricane at landfall. That's lower than yesterday which is great news!
3. Surge is still a MASSIVE concern. Highest surge totals will be at, and just to the South of the point of landfall. So a Manatee County surge would limit the height of the surge in Pinellas and the Bay. However, just a small tick to the North and those areas would be right in the thick of it. If you're in an evacuation zone, DO SO. No mincing words here. People who live along the coast and do not evacuate are risking their lives. The threat of wind is MUCH lower than the threat of water with this (and most storms).
4. Let's talk about winds. In my opinion. most of the area will see winds between 65 and 90 mph. VERY strong winds. Power outages will be widespread. Trees will fall. Some roofs will have issues as well. Lots of blue tarps are expected in the coming weeks. However, the extreme winds will be in a very small area. I'm talking 5 to 7 miles. They will probably occur near the eye and in the NORTHERN eyewall. Shear IS going to weaken Milton. The storm will look cut in half at landfall. However, the Northern eyewall, which will be over Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, will contain extreme wind gusts. Not sustained, but gusts to nearly 100 mph. This is something we will watch very closely. A change or wobble in track could easily move this band 20 miles North or South. Again, this is unpredictable and why it's important to keep following us here as well as on ABC Action News - WFTS - Tampa Bay Once the storm moves inland, areas in Polk and Desoto counties will also see hurricane-force wind gusts. I suspect they even reach Orlando as well.
5. I have posted and will post again, a great list of things to have ready as the storm nears. You still have ALL DAY today and tomorrow morning to get things done. The strongest winds don't arrive until Wednesday evening and overnight.
6. Rule #7. Now it NOT the time to freak out. It's the time for action. We have work to do to protect our families. We have work to do to protect our neighbors, our friends, our community. The stress level is massive. You CAN do this. We still have a day and a half to get ready for Milton. Floridians are strongest when things get the worst. We WILL get through this. And we will do it, TOGETHER. Updates 24/7.
7. As for colleges and universities, if kids are still planning on coming home today, expect massive delays on the roads. Take that into consideration if you're planning on having your kids leave school to go home. Florida State University and Florida A&M University will be fine. University of Florida should be fine as well. University of South Florida, The University of Tampa, and University of Central Florida will all experience hurricane-force wind gusts. UT will also have a significant surge risk. Do NOT let your kids stay if they are in a mandatory flood zone along the river. At this point, Florida Gulf Coast University is on the fringe of the heavy winds but a track change could change that. Make sure they stay vigilant.